Odds of Making It to the MLB: The Real Numbers for 2026
The odds of making it to the MLB are long at every step. About 8.8% of high school baseball players go on to play NCAA baseball, and only about 4.9% of draft-eligible NCAA players were picked in the 2025 MLB Draft. Even after signing, fewer than 1 in 5 draft picks have historically played a single big-league game, which puts a high school player’s chances at roughly 0.1%.
Those numbers come from the NCAA’s probability-of-competing estimates (updated March 2026) and Baseball America’s study of every draft from 1981 to 2010. Below is the quick table, how we got the high school number, and answers to the questions North Texas parents ask most.
Odds of Making It to the MLB: The Quick Table
| Step | Share who make it | Source |
|---|---|---|
| High school player → NCAA baseball (any division) | 8.8% | NCAA |
| High school player → NCAA Division I | 2.7% | NCAA |
| Draft-eligible NCAA player → drafted | 4.9% (452 of about 9,240) | NCAA, 2025 draft |
| Draft-eligible Division I player → drafted | 15.3% | NCAA, 2025 draft |
| Draft-eligible ACC/Big Ten/Big 12/SEC player → drafted | 40.8% | NCAA, 2025 draft |
| Signed draft pick → reaches MLB (all rounds) | 17.6% | Baseball America, 1981–2010 drafts |
| Signed 1st-round pick → reaches MLB | 73% | Baseball America, 1981–2010 drafts |
| High school player → MLB (rough estimate) | about 0.1% (roughly 1 in 1,100) | Our math from the figures above |
Step 1: High School to College Baseball
The NCAA counts 472,598 high school baseball players (2024-25 NFHS survey) and 41,580 NCAA baseball players. That works out to about 8.8% making an NCAA roster: 2.7% in Division I, 2.6% in Division II and 3.5% in Division III. Junior college and NAIA rosters add more spots, but the NCAA table doesn’t count them.
For a 12U or 13U family in North Texas, that’s the useful number. College baseball is a realistic goal for a committed player, but even that is a top-10% outcome. That’s why we keep telling parents to weigh what select baseball really costs against what you’re actually buying.
Step 2: College to the MLB Draft
There were 615 picks in the 2025 MLB Draft, and 452 went to NCAA players: 431 from Division I, 19 from Division II and 2 from Division III. The NCAA estimates about 9,240 NCAA players were draft-eligible, so 4.9% were picked. The odds jump with level: 15.3% of draft-eligible Division I players were taken, and 40.8% from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
Step 3: Minor League Odds of Reaching the Majors
Getting drafted is not the finish line. Baseball America studied every draft from 1981 to 2010 and found that 17.6% of players who were drafted and signed reached the major leagues. Round matters a lot: 73% of first-round picks made it, 51% of second-rounders and 40% of third-rounders, and the rate keeps falling after that. Only 9.8% of signed draftees ever posted even 0.1 career WAR, the bar for being more than a short call-up.
A separate SABR study of the 1996–2011 drafts found similar results: 66.7% of signed first-round picks played in the majors, and 46.8% stayed more than three years.
How We Estimate the High School Number
No official source publishes a single high-school-to-MLB percentage, so here is our math, using the numbers above. About 472,598 high school players over four grades is roughly 118,000 per class. If every one of the 615 draft picks in a year came from a single high school class, that’s about 0.5% drafted. Multiply by the 17.6% of signed picks who reach the majors and you get about 0.09%, or roughly 1 in 1,100. The real number is a little lower, because some picks come from Canada, Puerto Rico and junior colleges, and not every pick signs. Treat it as a ballpark, not an exact figure.
FAQ: Odds of Making It to the MLB
What percentage of high school baseball players make it to the MLB?
Roughly 0.1%, or about 1 in 1,100, by our estimate from NCAA and Baseball America figures. About 8.8% play NCAA baseball, and only a small slice of those are drafted and reach the majors.
What percentage of minor league players make it to the MLB?
Baseball America found that 17.6% of drafted-and-signed players from 1981 to 2010 reached the majors, so fewer than 1 in 5. First-round picks made it 73% of the time. Later-round picks made it far less often.
What percentage of college baseball players make it to the MLB?
About 4.9% of draft-eligible NCAA players were drafted in 2025 (15.3% in Division I). Since fewer than 1 in 5 signed picks have historically reached the majors, by our estimate roughly 1% of draft-eligible college players end up playing in MLB.
What are the odds of making it to the MLB from Division I?
Better than any other college route. 15.3% of draft-eligible Division I players were drafted in 2025, and 40.8% from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
How many players get drafted each year?
The 2025 MLB Draft had 615 picks, and 452 of them were NCAA players.
What This Means for North Texas Families
The odds aren’t a reason to quit. They’re a reason to choose teams, lessons and showcases for what they do for your kid now, not as a ticket to the pros. If your player is moving up, read what changes at 13U, build a smart offseason training plan, and start with our Ultimate Guide to Select Baseball in North Texas for the bigger picture.
The original breakdown further down this page uses older counts from earlier NCAA reports. Where the numbers differ, use the 2026 figures above.
Sources: NCAA, Probability of Competing Beyond High School and its methodology PDF (March 2026); Baseball America, “How Many MLB Draftees Make It To The Majors” (2019); SABR, “The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues”.
